Bio‐physical models of marine environments reveal biases in the representation of protected areas

1. The significant shortfall in global marine protection targets is likely to continue to drive rapid growth in marine protected areas (MPAs). Systematic conservation planning to fill gaps in marine protection requires sufficient knowledge of both the distribution of biodiversity and the threats to species and ecosystems. Yet such data are lacking for much of the marine environment, creating significant challenges for planning effective marine protection.
2. In the absence of habitat mapping data, critical environmental variables associated with species' distributions can be used to model the spatial distribution of different environments. Although this approach has been used in some jurisdictions to assist MPA planners, the increased availability and resolution of spatial data now provide an opportunity to improve assessments of MPA representation.
3. Capitalizing on advances in spatial data, this study uses a range of biological and physical environmental attributes to model the distribution of Australian marine environments. Given many Australian MPAs were implemented without knowledge of the distribution of species and benthic habitats, this Bio‐physical model is used to assess MPA coverage and equality of protection for Australian marine environments.
4. Results of the Bio‐physical model revealed that Australian MPAs overrepresent warm, offshore waters (such as the Coral Sea) and underrepresent temperate environments. Furthermore, the distribution of protection in Australian MPAs is heavily skewed, with no‐take protection disproportionately targeting tropical environments, leaving major gaps in the protection of both temperate and nearshore habitats.
5. Without comprehensive habitat mapping, the representativeness and adequacy of an MPA system cannot be accurately evaluated, nor can the required expansion of MPAs be planned effectively. In the interim, the biological and physical attributes chosen for this model provide useful proxies to assist in efforts to better target current and future protection based on the most up‐to‐date knowledge.

     

Upstream migration of the anadromous sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus Linnaeus, 1758) in a highly impounded river: Impact of low‐head obstacles and fisheries

1. Fisheries and the presence of low‐head obstacles are considered major threats for anadromous lampreys, including the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Nonetheless, research is still needed to increase our understanding of their effect and to implement effective conservation and management measures. Petromyzon marinus receives conservation protection in Europe through the Bern Convention and the European Habitats Directive and is listed as ‘Vulnerable’ in Spain.
2. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of low‐head obstacles and fisheries on the spawning migration of P. marinus in the highly impounded River Ulla (in north‐west Spain). Nineteen lamprey were radio‐tracked in 2012 and 2013, and historical data (2002–16) on fishing captures were analysed (n = 25 607) to provide a population‐level approach.
3. The retention of individuals by low‐head obstacles, including pesqueiras constructed for lamprey fishing, and extraction by fisheries at those structures, caused a significant reduction of migrants upstream of each impoundment (mean: 24% individuals per obstacle). A delay in migration (mean: 6.3 days per obstacle) seems to be an important limiting factor for lamprey conservation in this river. Thus, based on the recorded delay, lamprey would need c. 5 months to pass the 23 obstacles present before reaching the first spawning areas and 9.5 months to cover the accessible river section (45 obstacles), which is far longer than the 3–5 months of spawning migration of P. marinus in this river.
4. Consequently, obstacle removal or permeabilization should be prioritized for lamprey conservation in this river. This would reduce migration delay, the retention of individuals, and the catchability of lamprey at pesqueiras (with alternative routes to avoid traps). Basic information on fisheries management is still lacking, especially on stock exploitation rates and on lamprey population status and dynamics. Future studies should also investigate the role of lamprey exchange between basins (a lack of homing) in the resilience of lamprey populations.

     

Microtopographic structures facilitate plant recruitment across a saltmarsh tidal gradient

1. It is well known that establishment limitation is stronger than seed limitation in aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, it seems crucial during the recruitment recovery process to overcome this establishment limitation on bare or degraded patches.
2. Microtopographic structures have been shown to act as trap agents in saltmarshes. They can facilitate establishment, but this effect has not been quantitatively examined and assessed. This study examined the facilitative effect of microtopographic structures on plant recruitment in a dynamic saltmarsh system by conducting a series of field experiments along a saltmarsh tidal gradient.
3. A simple plant life‐cycle model was used to evaluate the dynamics of the plant recruitment process facilitated by microtopographic structure and the importance of each life stage. The influence of abiotic factors on each life stage was also assessed, to identify the determinants during the life history.
4. It was revealed that seed retention was the limiting factor in a bare saltmarsh area, rather than seed dispersal. Microtopographic structures can provide trap agents to facilitate seed anchorage. During seed retention, the stability of the microtopographic structure, especially its relative surface elevation difference, can be influenced by tidal events and the associated sediment process, which then affects seed retention efficiency.
5. Microtopographic structure has a strong environmental filtering effect that can revise the potential dispersed seed and emergence patterns, and the determinant of the final establishment pattern along a tidal gradient is the retention pattern resulting from the interactions between microtopographic structures and tidal events.
6. Furthermore, it can be designed into the early stage of recovery or restoration process so that it facilitates pioneer plant establishment. These early recruitment patches will speed up the recovery or succession process by (1) providing local seed sources, (2) retaining more seeds via the established vegetative structures, and (3) modifying microhabitat factors.

     

Use of state‐space modelling to identify ecological covariates associated with trends in pinniped demography

1. Identifying and understanding ecological drivers that influence wildlife populations is challenging but critical for conservation. This typically requires integrating long‐term data on both the population and potential drivers within statistical models that are suitable for analysing these complex relationships. State‐space models offer one method for integrating such data. Once implemented within a Bayesian framework, these analyses can control for multifactorial influences on populations, allowing one to extract otherwise undetectable correlations between the environment and the underlying, inferred demography.
2. In the Moray Firth, Scotland, harbour seals have been counted annually for 30 years (1988–2018). A Bayesian state‐space model was used to explore whether patterns in vital rates were correlated to changes in prey abundance, inter‐specific competition (grey seal abundance), environmental variables [the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea‐surface temperature], or level of biotoxins (saxitoxin and domoic acid) in the Moray Firth waters.
3. The credible interval of the posterior distributions of three of these covariate coefficients (sandeel proxy, NAO and grey seal abundance) suggested that there was a relationship between those covariates and vital rates. Both the sandeel proxy and NAO showed a positive correlation with fecundity, whereas grey seal abundance had a negative impact on pup survival.
4. This work demonstrates how an integrated state‐space modelling approach can bring together diverse data sets and point to important interactions with prey, and with other predators in the system. This suggests that the wider‐scale management of UK harbour seal populations with their contrasting temporal trends needs to account for variation in the marine ecosystem at appropriate spatial scales, in line with current policy concerning spatial planning in the marine environment.

     

Response of Scotian Shelf silver hake (Merluccius bilinearis) to environmental variability

Commercially‐exploited fish populations are not only shaped by fishing pressure, but also by the dynamics of their environment. By quantifying the influence of environmental variability, fisheries management advice can be improved and uncertainties reduced. To this end, we developed statistical models of the response of Scotian Shelf silver hake stock metrics to variability in zooplankton community composition and phenology over the past 18 years and in the physical environment since 1985. Dominant modes of variability in these pelagic habitat indicators were characterized using principal component analysis, and the relationships of silver hake condition, abundance, and recruitment to pelagic habitat variability were assessed using generalized additive models. Condition was largely modulated by the onset and duration of the spring bloom, which controls food availability. In contrast, adult abundance was governed by composition of the zooplankton community and bottom‐water temperature, which dictates the distribution of silver hake. Finally, recruitment was affected by both thermal conditions and food availability. Our results presented here form the basis for qualitative assessment of ecosystem attributes and the influence on silver hake stock productivity.     

Modelling the impacts of environmental variation on habitat suitability for Pacific saury in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

We developed habitat suitability index (HSI) models for two size classes of Pacific saury Cololabis saira in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. Environmental data, including sea surface temperature, sea surface height, salinity, and net primary production, and catch and effort data from Taiwanese distant‐water stick‐held dip net fisheries during the main fishing season (August–October) during 2002–2015 were used. Habitat preferences and suitable habitat area differed between size classes. The suitable habitat was located between 40–47.5°N and 145–165°E for large‐sized Pacific saury but encompassed a greater area (35–47°N and 140–165°E) for medium‐sized Pacific saury. Both size classes were affected by substantial interannual variation in the environmental variables, which in turn can be important in determining the potential fishing grounds. We found a significant negative relationship between the suitable habitat area and the Niño3.4 indices with a time‐lag of 6 months for the large‐sized (r = ?0.68) and medium‐sized (r = ?0.42) Pacific saury, respectively, as well as the total landings of Pacific saury by all fishing fleets (r = ?0.46). As remotely‐sensed environmental data become increasingly available, HSI models may prove useful for evaluation of possible changes in habitat suitability resulting from climate change or other environmental phenomena and in formulating scientific advice for management.     

Bonga shad (Ethmalosa fimbriata) spawning tactics in an upwelling environment

Successful recruitment in small pelagic fish populations inhabiting upwelling zones is subject to variation in fecundity and is driven by spatial and temporal fluctuations in environmental conditions, that is, mainly sea surface temperature, salinity and food availability. These fluctuations in abiotic factors have stimulated small pelagic fish populations to exhibit specifically adapted spawning tactics. To better understand to what extent a short‐lived exploited fish species such as bonga shad Ethmalosa fimbriata has adapted to an upwelling environment, we have investigated the interrelationship between upwelling intensity as a proxy for productivity and population fecundity by means of a virtual population analysis. We found that females of intermediate size contributed significantly more eggs to the population's fecundity than smaller or larger ones. Our model results further indicate that E. fimbriata exhibits a spawning preference at water temperatures of around 25°C and upwelling intensities of around 2.5 m³ s^?1 m^?1. Hence, we hypothesize that climate change‐driven increases in sea temperatures and modifications of upwelling‐favourable winds could significantly impact the species’ reproductive biology. To understand how climate change might impact fisheries, spawning tactics of small pelagic fishes are important to assess as well as their recruitment success. Such information is particularly relevant in countries where the fishery is critical at socio‐economic level, to better implement fisheries management addressing multiple stressors.